They're just 1.5 games out of a wild-card spot and have only lost one game by more than a field goal. It has been a slow start to the season for the 26-year-old, but he saw a season-high seven targets against Philly Sunday night (granted, he only hauled in two of them). The crazy thing is if opposing team injuries and luck keep playing along, they might be not only the worst 2nd seed ever, but probably the only 2nd seed ever to have worse DVOA than every other playoff team (Giants at 19 could maybe upset that one). The Bucs averaged 2.9 yards per play with eight turnovers. Economics warns about empirical work without theory. Realistically, Atlanta's going to need to pass Tampa Bay outright if they want to win the South. Who is Big 12 commissioner Brett Yormark? Roethlisberger would be nearly unprecedented if he didn't. But I don't see the evidence. Part of it is driven by the media pumping up SB victories and the white washing of history that comes with it. He can be heard Monday through Friday from 4:40-5:20 p.m. on The Sports Animal radio network, including FM-98.1. Terms of Use | Privacy Policy | Cookie Policy | Responsible Gaming, Support Football Outsiders' independent media and . Hes just getting to know the conference, though hes already made mid-week visits to every campus and hit a bunch of football games. Sir - As a 51 year old Raiders fan, I can tell you that I'd trade say a .300 record for all the years I've got left for a single ring I get to witness. Reminded me of nothing different than a Giants or Jets on a Sunday. Another issue is fumbles, as the Colts have fumbled the ball a league-leading 13 times on offense. But they have already definitively lost the tiebreaker to New England thanks to losing both matchups, making it 14 straight wins for the Patriots in their series. Huh. The Seahawks move up a spot to No. They know Im aggressive, and they know were pushing forward, Yormark said of his Power Five Conference peers. But I'm reasonably certain that fans of the Ryan era enjoyed their team more than fans of the Vick/Bartkowski??/Glanville? SPECIAL TEAMS DVOA is adjusted for type of stadium (warm, cold, dome, Denver) and week of season. In reply to Maybe - I have this niggling by serutan. The league and teams agree to let both teams share the trophy for a year, and both teams get an asterisks on their SB 'championship'. We know you are here for the FREE analytics, not the ads. Like the time he used a sharpie to change the impact zone of a hurricane to include Georgia because he said it would on Twitter a few days prior. If you measure by simply adding together the offensive DVOA of the two teams, the worst game ever was Green Bay's 27-0 win over Tampa Bay in Week 9 of 1991. Tennessee and Baltimore aren't issues, but the Chiefs have to finish a win clear of the rest of the AFC contenders if they want to enjoy a bye week; frankly, their tiebreakers suck for a 9-2 team. Seahawks starting running Rashaad Penny left Sunday's contest with a season-ending leg injury.With Penny gone, the rookie Walker III will inherit the lead responsibility in the highest-rated offense according to Football Outsiders' Offense DVOA and the 12th-highest Their improvement on pass defense is as big as New York's, going from 35.1% pass defense DVOA in Weeks 1-4 to -20.6% in Weeks 5-9. You managed just 3.6 yards per attempt against a Carolina defense than ranks just 20th in defensive DVOA -- not an embarrassment, but not exactly the Cowboys or anything. It's plays per pointin a single game. But that's a topic for another day. These things aren't immortal, they can degrade and change over time as well. It sets thefloor for performance,not the ceiling. Ive never agreed with this sentiment. Once you believe something like that, no data will change anything. The Seahawks offense is averaging 2.17 open field yards per carry, most in the league. The Chiefs rank third-best on the road in DVOA, and I like them to convincingly win here against a Niners team that doesn't look complete to me. Note the low completion rate in circumstances when high-percentage passing would be beneficial. No cashout, stake not returned. Stafford, Donald, Kupp: Bang, Marry, or Dump? This by MJK. What's the evidence that Fields will grow into Allen/Wilson level passer? Our playoff odds currently give seven teams greater than a 95% chance to make the playoffs, but I'm going to set the Bills and 49ers aside for just one momentwe'll get back to them, and why I'm relatively bearish compared to our numbers. and just in case New York eyes and ears didnt make it to ESPN, Yormark took the Big 12 to New York. by Aaron Brooks G, What you have to understand, my friend, is that Cale Clinton is a man cut from the Dan Campbell cloth. It worries me that Danielle Hunter is starting to get back in a groove, maybe due to getting used to playing in a 3-4. Most of us penciled the Falcons in as having one of the league's worst offenses for this season, and we figured the only things to watch for were Kyle Pitts racking up fantasy points and how long it would take for the team to pull Marcus Mariota and give rookie Desmond Ridder a shot under center. On the other hand, Fields is on pace for 79.9 scrambles for 761.7 yards, so he is not really on a list with Allen and Wilson, but in nearly uncharted territory. https://www.patspulpit.com/2022/11/8/23447821/bill-belichick-confirms-colts-jets-linebackers-recognizing-patriots-plays. While Ehlinger finished with a negative rushing DVOA in his first NFL start, the Colts did design run plays specifically for Ehlinger. All-star linebacker, Shaq Leonard, is still healing from various injuries. In reply to "the power of the Shanahan scheme" by JoelBarlow. Hes reorganized the conference office, creating 12 new mostly-marketing positions, and is taking the Big 12 to the marketplace, determined to not let outsiders tell the conference story. Net yards per attempt is almost exactly the same (6.21 yards this year vs. 6.22 last year). Assuming a loss in Buffalo, that still leaves them 11-6 or better. Rekindled interest by ESPN and Fox to open television contract negotiations. A restructured conference office that includes major marketing initiatives. So they're having trouble covering wide receivers of all varieties. Consistently relevant only gets you consistent relevance. Shakir is too young, McKenzie too inconsistent, and I have no idea what the deal is with Knox. by justanothersteve. (it feels like it does since all the bad games have lots of turnovers). In reply to Have you seen the other 2-4 teams? How do you look back on the 07 season? The NFC is wide open. Nowhere else on FO are we talking about the quality of an entire game in terms of appearances. 5 times in 20 years is 25% of the time. It's all latent and assumed. Every age bracket, demo, doesnt matter. Good times. The problem for the Falcons? The head-to-head losses to both Dallas and Philadelphia are the huge blow there; they need the NFC East to beat up on each other enough to get a full game clear at the top. Remember when he nearly led Washington to a win over Tampa Bay in the playoffs two years ago? Less convinced because stylistically they have changed a few number of times, but whatever; I also believe something is there. Whatever. Guys like Aikman, Kelly, Moon, and Namath are also below the cut but in. in. If the Giants win, they go to 73% and the Commanders to 39%. The Rams traded it all for a Super Bowl, so it was worth it. Were winning in all the areas that really matter, when you think about the long game. At the moment, there's a 34% chance the NFC South will be won by a team with a losing record, as neither the Buccaneers nor the Falcons are exactly lighting up the league. Peyton shows up a few more times on the first page, as does Rodgers in his 2011 season but also 2014. Ive never agreed with this sentiment. Terms of Use | Privacy Policy | Cookie Policy | Responsible Gaming, Breaking Down the Playoff Picture, from Eagles to Texans, Support Football Outsiders' independent media and . Exhibitionist & Voyeur 04/05/17: I, Candi Ch. "Putting trust in Josh McDaniels" was not something on my to-do list this year, but sometimes you gotta live on the wild side. DVOA does measure the fourth bullet point - in fact, it's quite good at measuring these things. The Bengals lead the NFL with 59 rushes and 271 yards in such circumstances, again largely because they spent entire halves goofing around against the Falcons and Panthers. ESPN: Best Veteran Contracts on Each Team, Playoff Previews (previously Game Previews). When it comes to QBs (and the film industry), nobody knows anything. Latest breaking news, including politics, crime and celebrity. There's too much working against them, and while you can never count Justin Herbert out entirely, I think there are just too many roadblocks in their way. You've had tons of high-end QB and WR movement, which almost never happened before. I think the Texans will fall into the latter category now that Jack Easterby has been called back to the comet. We can't be sure these trends will stick in a month from now -- since it is still early -- but through a month of games, we've seen some things worth exploring. 'The Rams traded it all for a Super Bowl, so it was worth it. Reread your earlier paragraphs. 14 points sounds like a lot, but that isn't quite an insurmountable lead as it might sound depending on how much time is left. Alex Smith had a game where he had a negative ANY/A with 42 net passing yards, 0 TDs, and 4 INTs. As for the Bills, well, they may still have the best DVOA in the league and that signature win over Kansas City in their back pocket, but they're only 10th with a 15.3% DVOA over the past six weeks, dropping games to the Jets and Vikings along the way. What If Justin Herbert Isn't All That Great? He is a likable guy. If you use our DVOA Filter by Week tool, available to FO+ subscribers, you can see that only the Patriots have had a better average defensive DVOA over the past four weeks. With home games against Dallas, NE, Indy, Jets & Giants, I just can't see them going worse than 4-4 in those last 8 games unless something significant turns around. I'm not worthy to be at the top of DVOA Mountain yet. Broncos because they also have to watch their first-round pick head to Seattle, In reply to Broncos because they also by Sixknots. That frustrates me; but whatever, life doesn't always offer those opportunities. In reply to "Plays per value" is the by Aaron Brooks G. I envision a big day for Justin Herbert and this offense against a below-average pass defense. The game-ending pick vs. Minnesota happened on 2nd and 10 in comfortable FG range with Singletary uncovered for at least a 6-8 yard gain just to Allen's right. And when Jordan Davis comes back, the Eagles run defense could turn from a weakness into a relative strength. That leaves the Chiefs, Titans, Eagles, Cowboys, and Vikings. In reply to Says a Packers fan. How are they only ranked 18th? Candi roots for the wrong Football team. I was fully prepared to shed and suck once Rodgers retired. Whoops the organization must have declined", In reply to Against my better judgement, by theslothook. Few teams actually win. We're seeing some really good performances from young receivers, and not necessarily the names you were expecting before the season. So it's more like saying "I don't mind if my team hasn't won a Super Bowl yet if they're consistently the best team in their division." Kansas City is fifth over that time period. The Eagles come in about middle of the pack in the history of 8-0 teams, ranking 14th out of 24 teams that started 8-0 since 1981. DVOA doesn't measure magic, and believing that teams can will themselves better when they want to is wishcasting - because if it wasn't, teams would just do it all the time - because why wouldn't you? Best Odds Bet In-Play Cash Out. They were just doing nothing for the most part. In reply to I'm not talking aboutactual by Pat. Once I was sitting on his couch and caught him staring at my knee with a ravenous focus. The second step was signing every thirtysomething former Pro Bowl defensive tackle who wasn't nailed down. In reply to Seems like if you wanted to by Aaron Brooks G, When I wondered if commenters would have my back or turn on me when I started writing for this website, this is admittedly not the form I thought it would take , Football Outsiders content published by ESPN. https://www.espn.com/college-football/playbyplay/_/gameId/401013066. If you think about it, "how many plays of utter dreck do I need to go through before I see something worthwhile" is reasonable measure. They play everyone close despite an offense gutted by injuries. The defensive decline comes against both the pass and the run, and the Bengals' three best defensive games by DVOA were all in that initial four-week period. For every Steelers type run, there are the Chargers. Not sure if that would be readily available. And Smith isn't living on dinks and dunk -- by Football Outsiders' DYAR numbers, Smith leads the NFL in value on deep passes of 16 or more yards through the air. Three incomplete passes (plus a defensive penalty), one 7-yard pass on third-and-15 and two sacks. But he says its really just a different way of selling the Big 12. DVOA Analysis. I don't think Josh Allen's elbow injury is serious enough to derail a Buffalo team which looked nigh-unstoppable at points in September and October, but we'll know a little more once they get through the Pats-Jets-Dolphins gauntlet they have coming up. Also, I think luck plays a bigger part in the outcomes than many would admit. The lists do not show all contributions to every state ballot measure, or each independent expenditure committee formed to support or Since the move to a 4-team division in 2002, the Vikings have won their division 5 times. I've combed through Football Outsiders and ESPN Stats & Information metrics, and here is what I've found. Best Odds Bet In-Play Cash Out. Yormark plans to do the same with the Big 12. Maybe the Vikings were fortunate to come out on top against Buffalo, New Orleans, Washington, Chicago, and Arizona, but they did beat them. Search for "competitive balance sports NFL" or the equivalent in Google Scholar and it should turn up a fair amount. For every interloper title winner like the Giants, there's a team like the Chargers or the 2000s Eagles who made the playoffs a bunch and have nothing to show for it. And Matt Ryan too, why not? Situationally, he made the correct decision on both of the picks against the Packers. Is the AFCE the best division top to bottom this year? In reply to Its really hard to overstate by Hoodie_Sleeves. It's actually kinda amazing that only 1 was worked out (MIA) so far. In reply to True, the offseason was crazy by KnotMe. Remember, these are full-season stats for everyone but Fields: If you are curious, Lamar Jackson scrambled for 390 yards in 2021 and 384 yards in 2019, 12th and 13th on the list. Aaron Schatz: Alec Pierce, WR, IND, come on down! No! It's easy for an all-in team to look great at thebeginning of the year. Luckily, the Rams have ideal replacements waiting in the wings like um well maybe they can draft oh right. They should stomp on Chicago's throats from the opening kick. If this continues, it will be only the second season since 2010 in which teams averaged less than 22.0 points per game -- the other was 2017, when the average was 21.7 points. Just make the play now! What I see in the last several weeks is an ability to be not the least effective passer in the league in a very limited passing offense. The 49ers are 3-2 with the best defense of the year so far by DVOA. It's a bit of a theoretical discussion, though, because there's little evidence that "tanking" plus "win now" cycles increase the chance of winning Super Bowls compared to building teams that are consistently relevant. But at the end of the day, the total number of wins (and close losses) a team garners is a better reflection of fan entertainment than the number of championships. I've also met Raiders fans who cherish the 80s and it gets them through any prolonged drought. Detroit Lions Receivers Key to Daily Fantasy. The teams who win are almost always good for a long period of time and interestingly win during the off years so to speak. Even then, it's a tough aska tie at 12 wins would give the 49ers the tiebreaker on common opponents, while ties at 11 wins go San Francisco's way unless they slip up against the Cardinals and the Seahawks don't against the Rams. The first one against the Jets was the real mind-bender. ', "Ive never agreed with this sentiment. Says a Packers fan. Fans come out to individual football games to watch their teams compete and hopefully win that particular game. Take Allen's scrambles out of the Bills rushing data and they still average 4.5 yards per carry. Now, Big 12 athletic directors have grown confident the new media contracts are expected to increase from where they were. Stafford's 2022 season did increase his Hall of Fame probability from about zero to maybe 10%; if he were leading another Rams charge this season, he would be mounting a more serious case. The Vikings haveto be the worst 7-1 team ever. Geno has clearly been much better, but which one would you pick going forward into 2023? They scored 20, 27 and 24 points. I have strong views, but I also can be convinced and appreciate when people are able to pointedly explain where I am wrong. OFFENSE and DEFENSE DVOA are adjusted for opponent and performance indoors and consider all fumbles, kept or lost, as equal value. News, fixtures, scores and video. Did you bother to watch the chaos that was last week's episode of The Greatest Game? They're running the ball phenomenally and the defense is holding up their end of the bargain, but they almost got upset by Carolina because they could not find the end zone. It wasnt that these teams were moving the ball and then making high leverage mistakes. If you did the usual average, youd get the wrong answer. In reply to I think the yards per play by Ben. All that said, I don't think this is the sort of game where the Broncos offense gets better; they could hit some long bombs like Lamar did in the season opener, and thereby mask the rest of the issues in a 28-10 something win, but looking back at that game, the Jets outgained the Ravens 380 yards to 274 yards. Obviously they arn't in a good place right now, but they havn't feen around that long either. (Two of those interceptions were from backup Matt Moore, who replaced Clausen when the game was out of reach late.) Let's pick it anyway. I guess well see. He has caught 17 out of 20 targets for 226 yards and three touchdowns. Instead, Sean McDermott and coordinator Ken Dorsey keep calling Allen's number, often on deep passes. Note: Numbers above do not include the Thursday night's Commanders-Bears game. Offensive DVOA is going to be even worse when a quarterback goes on an interception spree or a team fumbles five times. In reply to "Fields could grow into an by Led, Responding to Pat here because the thread was becoming hard to read. We know you are here for the FREE analytics, not the ads. Connect with the culture in a different way.. I enjoyed it as a fan even before that though - playoff games every single year, always felt like there was a chance. Football Power Index rankings In the AFC, the 9-2 Chiefs currently sit in possession of the top seed, with the Dolphins, Titans, and Ravens joining them as division leaders. DVOA Analysis. Sothose two teams were worse (less efficient) than teams playing in horrible weather. The only asterisk on all these performances is that it is still early in the season. But something being practicallyuntestabledoes not mean false. Were going to be on our way to make ourselves younger, hipper, cooler, Yormark said. In reply to Allen seems as likely to be by Will Allen. Two weeks of Kirk Cousins takes will then ensue. As always, positive numbers represent more points so DEFENSE is better when it is NEGATIVE. Passing touchdowns per game are down to their lowest level since 2008, but otherwise, passing numbers are similar to last year. I provided multiple different criteria. Mike Tanier: Indianapolis Colts (+2.5) at Tennessee Titans. In reply to I'd be curious to see how by theslothook. NFL Week 13 December 01, 9:30 am ET 0. I think we have reached the point of the season where winning teams start to get used to playing winning football and losing teams find ways to soil the bed, as the Jags did against the Colts a week ago. Bowlsby could testify at a Congressional hearing and be the smartest person in the room. I want to be destinational for these student-athletes, then well figure out the tactics that we use. Football decimal odds are easy to understand, because they represent the payout you'll get if you win e.g. :), In reply to It would help if you could by Pat. The entire AFC East has winning records right now and the entire division also ranks in the top half of the DVOA ratings, with the Patriots last among the four teams at No. When he started talking about horrible offence games I was expecting it to be about the games like the snow bowl where they played in a blizzard. 188 wins would have a standard deviation of +/-14 or so, and the top 3 teams have 259, 229, 227. The receiver room has been banged up. NFL Week 13 - With Thanksgiving come and gone, we enter the final act of the 2022 NFL season12 weeks gone, six weeks to go.Say what you will about the NFL's current schedulethe fact that teams can't finish .500 anymore; the imbalanced number of home and away games; the bizarre, bizarre scheduling choices which means that some teams still haven't The offense has been a disappointment, ranking just 23rd in DVOA so far, but at least that side of the ball has hope with DeAndre Hopkins coming back in a week from a six-game suspension. And there's very little hope for Atlanta if they don't beat Tampa Bay in Week 18; the Buccaneers already won the Week 5 game, they have half-game lead on Atlanta, and they have the easier schedule going forward at -4.5% to Atlanta's -0.2%. Everyone makes mistakes. I was never so happy as when Minnesota pulled out that week 17 game against Green Bay in 2012, after the refs let McCarthy skate on throwing a challenge flag on a turnover play in the 3rd quarter after the league hammered the Lions earlier in the season for the same thing. They each have a 0.2% chance of earning a wild-card slot, which is actually below the average for the 10 dead teams. I'm looking forward to getting this article thrown right back into my face in February, when it turns out this week's Lions-Jaguars game is actually the super-secret Super Bowl preview we have all been waiting for. To get the right answer, you convert the speeds into hours per mile to get distance in the denominator, average those, and then invert back to miles per hour. In five years, who cares that the Rams beat the Bengals in a Super Bowl that had no memorable moments? Russell by Bryan Knowles. My point was you need to be a bit better than "reach the playoffs" to have a reasonable expectation if a ring. Fields also has lots of scrambling production while the Bears trailed opponents by two scores in wild 'n' wooly games. However, I took his sentiment in more of a completely hypothetical kind of way. Texas at Texas Tech. The Seahawks have spent more game time behind or tied than ahead this year. Recent and Trending topics from Football Outsiders. No cashout, stake not returned. So the Bills have run 42 times and passed 46 times (counting sacks) with a 14-point lead. There's getting blown out by a strong opponent one week after an emotional win and there's coming utterly unglued and forgetting how to play football when things are going sideways. Week 13 Staff Picks: Is Chris Olave Best Bet for OROY? Yormark is a dead ringer for actor David Hyde Pierce, the wondrous Dr. Niles Crane of Frasier fame, only without the neurosis. Otherwise you end up with nonsense like a totally alien planet having things named after Falcons. On this week's Data Show, Aaron Schatz slightly re-worded Bill Parcells' famous quoteyou were what your record says you were. A Vikings Bills SB would be the first SB to end in a tie, when during the 3rd overtime period a storm comes out of nowhere, knocks out the power so the game stops, then gets evacuated when tornadoes are spotted, and the stadium ends up damaged and becomes unusable. In reply to While the "consistent by KnotMe. Usually, you've got to be really good and a little lucky (or pretty good and REALLY lucky). The issue is combining the two teams. 29 schedule. Its really hard to succeed when the offensive line is a mess, spent all off-season practicing a different blocking scheme, and you tell the defense what play you're going to run. They have won in spite of the QB, so the easiest explanation of all for long term success isn't there. and during this 6 game winning streak, they have lost the DVOA battle 4 times. I'm kinda curious how Houston fans look at it. The Jets have dramatically improved since the first month of the season, which gives me an opportunity to bring out first month vs. second month splits. Seattle is just one of a number of teams that pairs a strong offense with a bad defense. Theres no way he wouldnt take the bait on this question, The Giants, meanwhile, are sixth overall in the same span with the league's top passing offense.. Im not sure what takeaways there are other than Kurt Warner should not be allowed to pass when up 14, and Brady definitely should. Note: Chiefs were originally three-point favorites when this was written earlier in the week.). Max 1 purchase per customer/week. and I can't believe anyone on this site still has faith in the Broncos. While neither team can afford to be swept, it's the Giants with more pressure to get something out of these matchups. When last year's Bengals' season was over, FO Bengals fan Rob Weintraub didn't say, "Boy what a hell of a run that was." So while manyteamshave been really really good and not won, nofranchiseshave been consistently good and not won. Carlson:Why conference realignment may force Big 12 schools to make changes to Olympic sports, I was very comfortable with that narrative, that were going to be aggressive and thoughtful, Yormark said. With Jonathan Taylor healthy, the Colts offense can do one thing very well, and even a novice game-planner should figure out what to do. The Packers, Cardinals, Rams, Bears, Texans, Broncos, Steelers, Browns, Raiders, and Colts have a combined 12.4% chance of making the playoffs in our latest postseason odds, and most of that is mutually exclusive. The latest football odds are updated regularly with little to no notice at all as the game nears kick-off, half-time, or the final whistle. Arizona has actually been very good against opposing No. I do think 2007 and 28-3 are some of the most painful SB losses ever although it's not like there are any good ones. In terms of DVOA, there's a pretty clear hierarchy from top to bottomthe Bengals are solidly in first at 16.6%, the Jets are just hanging on to an edge over the Patriots with both hovering around 11%, and the Chargers are way, way behind at -10.1%. Not one player down where those two are is in the HoF. The sample size is too small. The New England Patriots defense has struggled against the run this season, currently ranking 27th in defensive rushing DVOA. Come on. There's absolutely nothing in common between the 2000 Seahawks and the Russell Wilson Seahawks. That just leaves the Jets and Patriots for the seventh seed. In reply to I am not the smartest man in by theslothook. If they're going to turn it around, they better start this week. Suh was still effective in bursts for the Buccaneers in 2020 and 2021, but he is strictly a rotation player these days. It's not really an either-or situation. It's a funky average that only comes out high when both (or all) of the numbers involved are high. DAYTIME TALK-SHOW SOCK-PUPPET: If Kirk Cousins wins the Super Bowl, he's a no-question first-ballot Hall of Famer, and anyone who disagrees is a hater. If Smith is playing so well, why does Seattle have a losing record? They rank first against the run and fifth against the pass. And Yormark is blessed by timing Big 12 football has stepped into an incredible run of parity. The Eagles allowed 152 rushing yards in Monday night's loss to the Washington Commanders after allowing 168 yards to the Texans in Week 9. I'm not sure the Packers are prepared for Heinicke's style, even if there's plenty of film on him from last year. Faith is belief in the absence of evidence. When I asked for something testable, you cite an empty regression which even if the underlying assumptions are swept under the rug, it doesn't even test for anything organizationally. I follow the Colorado Buffaloes, who will never be relevant again. 18+. Kirk Cousins, Hall of Famer? Founder of Football Outsiders Editor-in-Chief Creator of DVOA and DYAR Worcester, MA. It's not just that Cooper Kupp is injured and Michael Thomas doesn't really exist. They replaced 2 out of 5 this season. In my 50+ Adult years of watching / being a fan of sports it still stands as the single most painful moment of my sports fandom I recall. Smith is ranked fourth in QBR, trailing only Tua Tagovailoa, Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen. A successful play is worth one point; an unsuccessful play, zero points with fractional points in between (e.g., eight yards on third-and-10 is worth 0.54 success points). Still, go ahead and pencil nine playoff slots as filled, as well as four divisional titles, with the Chiefs, Titans, Vikings, and Eagles-or-Cowboys all sitting pretty. This may not be a fully-healthy 49ers team, but it should be closer than it has been in a while. Since 1990, 2-4 teams have only made the playoffs 10% of the time. San Francisco also ranks 30th against runs in the red zone, and that's not likely to continue. That's the team that went on to get creamed by the Giants in the NFC Championship Game. More NFL coverage . The Patriots have dropped to 25th in offensive DVOA, although their defense and special teams have kept them in the top half of the league overall. Smith's rate of 9.4% is the lowest on record and the only figure for a starting quarterback under 10% in their data set. By using the harmonic mean, this analysis in effect says that DVOA is the wrong way to evaluate a teams offense. These things are a myth. And please don't pretend that it has already happened. However, three different teams did it last year. On the other hand, a further look into the stats doesn't suggest that Smith is doing anything fluky. I'd rather never see my team get to a SB than have them make it and lose the way the Seahawks and Falcons did. In reply to Sir - As a 51 year old by billprudden. Raw Numbers: Smith's bad throw percentage, per Pro Football Reference, is an NFL-best 9.4%. Because if a team really was 'clutch', and could make plays on-demand - then they would do thisall the time. To fully clarify: this is scramble data from the Sports Info Solutions datahub, not overall rushing data. Week 6 NFL rumblings and upset picks: Should Russ' play worry Broncos fans? ), "bend but don't break" defenses (12th in fewest points allowed despite giving up the 25th most yards/game), offenses which can string successful plays together when they need points (9th in points scored despite being 16th in offensive yards/game), not giving away free yards on things like touchbacks on kicks and punts, as well aspenalties (5th in most punts inside the 20, 0 touchbacks on punts all year, 2nd in average starting field position, 5th in fewest penalty yards/game, etc. In reply to I'd be surprised if they by mehllageman56. The Vikings, Chargers, and Titans are "fringe" relevant teams. And probably also with the Steelers. While some backups who succeed as starters are taking advantage of situations that allow them to play conservatively -- Cooper Rush of Dallas, for example -- Smith is not playing conservatively at all. It's as good a time as any to take a step back and take stock of the playoff race as we enter the final stretch. This feels like the ultimate trap, but I'm diving in headfirst. I have evidence, based on years of experience with many different kinds of large organizations. Im really energized by it, Yormark said. What If Justin Herbert Isn't All That Great? I want them to think about our conference first, in some respects, where they like everything were doing. It's a little more complicated than the NFC because there are more divisions in playwe give the Bengals a 23.1% chance to win the AFC North; the Jets and Patriots 10.6% and 4.8% chances to win the AFC East, respectively; and then the Chargers too are playing football. There really aren't teams like the Marlins that come to mind, the way the salary cap and trade deadline and everything works makes it much tougher to truly do this in football.
is way better than this. The Cardinals are 2-3 and would be 1-4 if not for a fumble recovery touchdown in overtime against Las Vegas back in Week 2. So repeat success does not imply that you will win a title. In reply to They scored 20, 27 and 24 by KnotMe. The Colts o-line is playing so terribly that it doesnt really matter who the QB, RB, or coach is at this point. Consistently 5-7.it's probably not. The #Packers win 16 of them#SKOL, Bryan Knowles (@BryKno) November 28, 2022. But Yormark points out that Kansas certainly had a brand last weekend, with the Jayhawks hosting College GameDay on Campanile Hill, resulting in the highest ratings of the season for ESPNs pregame show. ", This coming from an Eagles fan who gets to have both, In reply to "Ive never agreed with this by riri. Complex, a New York media and entertainment company centering on youth culture, style, sneakers, food, music and sports, is profiling the Big 12 for its magazine. Get breaking NFL Football News, our in-depth expert analysis, latest rumors and follow your favorite sports, leagues and teams with our live updates. You run a surface level regression, conclude it can't be the head coach or the QB or the other coaches, thus it has to be the "organization" without ever venturing a cause and effect about how. People are starting to think, Whats going on over there?, Tramel's ScissorTales: Lance Leipold performing miracles with Kansas football. A few days later, Yormark led a Big 12 delegation, including basketball coaches Scott Drew of Baylor and Bob Huggins of West Virginia, on a Gotham City blitz of both traditional and non-traditional media. Not just two titles, but one of the greatest upsets in NFL history to boot. Even if one or two don't make the return, those are some much-needed reinforcements on both sides of the ball. Teams not gaining ground is awful to watch. We knew that their window could only be open for so long after flipping so many draft picks for immediate talent, but the degree to which the defending champions has fallen is basically unprecedented. Your claim is "but.. but.. the data's too weak, you can't prove it.". Top Waiver Adds Ken Walker III, RB, Seattle Seahawks (45% rostered Yahoo / 47.5% rostered ESPN). Think of the distinction this way: if any of the first 10 teams were to go 6-0 down the stretch, they would probably still miss the playoffs. And for a team that's as strong as the Eagles elsewhere, a handful of stuffed runs will go a long way. At least, some SB winners have had QBs I regard as far worse than Cousins. And the numbers don't change meaningfully if you slide the definition of "winning big" down to 13 or up to 16. From 01.10.2023. Fields leads the NFL in scrambles (47) and scramble yards (448) by a wide margin. Were going to story tell, Yormark said. If I were a betting person, I would stay the hell away from Broncos-Jets. Even if you think (very incorrectly) that voters wave all quarterbacks with rings into Canton, do you think voters would wave two of them in simultaneously? You think they should be lower? But consider that they are in the middle of the pack in run defense DVOA, while the Falcons have the NFL's top rushing offense. In reply to Being consistently relevant by Aaron Brooks G. The reason being that these things (and I cannot stress this enough)do not exist. I really hope we don't have proper data to do DVOA (beyond estimated) for that Super Bowl. Best Odds Bet In-Play Cash Out. We're not talking about comparing teams, we're talking about comparing offenses ingames- notanoffense compared to another offense,alloffense (by both teams) in a game compared toalloffense (by both teams) in another game. Football decimal odds are easy to understand, because they represent the payout you'll get if you win e.g. Given the ridiculously good season that Jonathan Taylor had a year ago, that's as big of a surprise as the good seasons that Geno Smith and Jacoby Brissett are putting up -- just in the other direction. Imagine if the 49ers had held onto their late lead in the NFC Championship Game. Houston's a pretty textbook example of "go all in, win a few years, fall apart." Age and wisdom have taught me that. For offensive travesties, youd probably do better just to look at the DVOA of the better of the two offenses in each game. I've combed through Football Outsiders and ESPN Stats & Information metrics, and here is what I've found. You can hopefully see why there's a little more cause for concern for the likes of the Bills and 49ers than there are for the cruising Chiefs or Eagles, no matter what DVOA says. But harmonic mean is what you use when you really should have been working with the inverse of the measure you used. On the one hand, it's encouraging to see Fields on a list with Allen and Wilson. Jacoby Brissett of Cleveland, filling in for the suspended Deshaun Watson, is currently sixth in QBR. The mention of "plays per point" was just because DVOA's on a play scale - it's just a normalization factor. I've heard NE fans say they would trade 2 for a 2007 win just bc it would have been so insane. That doesn't leave us with a lot of data with which to analyze Fields. In reply to If you want a cutoff for by KnotMe. Stafford, Donald, Kupp: Bang, Marry, or Dump? Based on harmonic mean, the worst combined offensive performance in one game came in a 23-6 Chicago win over Carolina in Week 5 of 2010. I got interesting answers, but one's that were hard to prove in data. Find all the latest real-time sports coverage, live reports, analysis and comment on Telegraph Sport. NFL Week 11 - In this whiparound NFL Week 11 end-of-week edition of Walkthrough: You don't need Walkthrough to point out that Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills have gotten a little over-aggressive when leading in the fourth quarter. Still, they beat out LV & Pit by DVOA by a little bit, so they weren't both the 1st seed and worst in the playoffs (3rd worst and 1st seed is still crazy). After this week's game at Buffalo, they only have road games against each of their weaker division rivals. It's organizational. Baltimore simulation assumes that Lamar Jackson will miss Week 14. Instead, this offense is driven by a much-improved offensive line. Over on the all-time touchdown list, Cousins and Andy Dalton are tied at 29th with 237 touchdowns. This is the third game in five weeks that Taylor has missed with an ankle injury. Are they really "worse" than 5 separate teams that have losing records now that are ranked higher in DVOA? A good contrast is the 2000s Bucs vs the 2000s Eagles and I leave it to fans of those teams to chime in how they feel. You were successful on a whopping29%of your dropbacks, worst in the league last week. Caleb Kelly hopes OU's new nearly-black jerseys get your attention, Keeping quarterbacks around is the answer for college football's backup dilemma, Brett Yormark has big plans for Big 12 basketball tournament, Your California Privacy Rights/Privacy Policy. Outside of that Thanksgiving game against the Bills, there aren't many great offenses left on the table, so that whole "worst defense in the league" thing may adjust. The Florida climate scares me a bit, but I'm trusting Brian Daboll and the good vibes in New York East Rutherford to keep rolling. A couple things that I believe DVOA doesn't capture are: I realize that most of these things may not be sustainable, and many are likely not predictive. It's hard to evaluate small samples. A shelter in the time of storm. Betfairs Betting Exchange lets you bet against other people and get great odds on thousands of markets every day. Birds of a feather and all that. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/199211220cin.htm. I haveliterallystated, multiple times, the cause and effect. Tennessee was at a little under 3 plays per point. Ekeler, Henry Worth Paying For in Week 13 DFS; TCU Horned Frogs Have Silenced the Skeptics; How D.J. Here are the top five. The early returns on Yormarks three months in Las Colinas have been strong. The division is weak. & Support the Writers Support Football Outsiders' independent media. In July, he famously said at his first press conference that the Big 12 was open for business, and in the second straight summer of realignment, the press corps ran with the idea that the Big 12 was seeking to expand by pilfering schools from the staggered Pac-12. Limited to teams that are underdogs by three points or more. But the Dallas Cowboys leapt into second place -- and first place in the NFC -- by hammering the Minnesota Vikings 40-3. Football is such an injury driven game, that I feel the all-in is pretty difficult and it's pretty rare to get movement at the difference maker level. That being said, it's a pretty low bar for "relevant. Yormark is a 5-foot-9 New Jersey native who is as hip as you can be for a 56-year-old. They have good coaching. In reply to Geno has clearly been much by Noahrk. At the same time, the 49ers have had some bad defensive performances and you can't just attribute their decline to the fact that the monsoon game made their Week 1 defense look great. In reply to It would be hard for Wilson by Aaron Brooks G. Again, top 10 franchises in winning percentage since 2000: every single one has a Super Bowl, and every single one has more division titles than Minnesota. Pro Football Reference began tracking bad throws and bad throw rates in 2018. One final thoughts before the next segment: the leaders in pass attempts while leading by 14 or more points since 2015 are: Tom Brady in 2015 (118 attempts), Tom Brady in 2016 (104), Tom Brady in 2019 (96), Tom Brady in 2021 (94), and Matt Ryan in 2016 (92), with Lamar Jackson a surprising sixth with 89 attempts in 2020. DAVE is a formula which combines our preseason forecast with weighted DVOA to get a more accurate projection of how a team will play the rest of the season. In reply to Since I can't craft a proper by TomC. I mean, it's got to be the Jags, right? Counting those scrambles as passes gives the Bills a 42% run rate. Five million in the red may not sound that bad, at least compared to the Saints at $67.5 million. Exhibitionist & Voyeur 04/04/17: I, Candi Ch. If they are elite QBs, that window can go a decade and a half. They said that about the Manning era Colts until they finally won one. But the Bills coughed up a big lead against the Vikings and a more modest one against the Jets, and they allowed the Packers to climb back into what looked like it was going to be an easy win. 1 offense according to DVOA. The Tennessee Titans rank 25th against WR1s, 31st against WR2s, and 28th against "Other WR." As of this week, we are now posting DVOA data on Monday instead of waiting until Tuesday as in the past. Week 14 Staff Picks: Can Anyone in NFC Stop Eagles? The biggest offensive improvement of the second month of the season belongs to the Cincinnati Bengals, but their defense and special teams have declined at the same time. I feel like half of you co-workers is a lot when you are in your 30's. "Between brain and mouth, there's no interlocutor". Ekeler, Henry Worth Paying For in Week 13 DFS; TCU Horned Frogs Have Silenced the Skeptics; NFL Week 11 - Some big games lead to some big moves up the Football Outsiders DVOA ratings table this week. This is already a long post, but I think the source of our particular disagreement comes down to threshhold of classification. I'm quite sure I would see that as a wonderful era to be a fan even if they had never won a SB in that stretch. That season was a masterclass in terrible offense. I honestly don't believe the next 4 games against teams with winning records will tell us much unless they go 0-4 or 4-0, because they have such a cushion in the standings. Seahawks starting running Rashaad Penny left Sunday's contest with a season-ending leg injury.With Penny gone, the rookie Walker III will inherit the lead responsibility in the highest-rated offense according to Football Outsiders' Offense DVOA and the 12th-highest They have turned over the head coaches and gone in completely different directions. Top Waiver Adds Ken Walker III, RB, Seattle Seahawks (45% rostered Yahoo / 47.5% rostered ESPN). Bet tokens for selected markets only, expire 23:59 Sunday after purchase. It makes perfect sense to me - you're simply refusing to acknowledge it. The exception will be snap counts, which will still be available to everyone Monday but now will be updated earlier. In reply to Imagine if the Bengals had by Aaron Brooks G, Blew a massive lead to the Bucs and needed a FG to avoid OT, it was just about as star-crossed a run as the Bengals, but we've all decided McVay is a genius and Stafford is a HOF qb so we just rolled with it. To save people some time, please use the following format for all complaints: is clearly ranked because . The #Lions win 87 of them But the pass defense has really dropped off since then. Explore sample content below to see what you're missing. Power shift in NFC North? On offense, while Geno Smith has still been playing well, the Seahawks have dropped from 7.3 net yards per pass to 6.5 net yards per pass over the last five weeks. The Colts ran 60 plays and generated -31.93 expected points on offense. Explore sample content below to see what you're missing. So the average "expected points/play" that you were watching that game is the harmonic mean of the two, or nearly -0.24 EPA/play. CeeDee Lamb emerges as a WR1 This year, it is not. Click here for the full table. I hope we can move forward without acrimony. I also knew one who said 28-3 was when they kinda made peace with it. From week 4-6, they had 67 pass attemptstotal. In reply to You do sometimes post as if by Noahrk. I amapplyingthis evidence to conclude that the high level of success of certain football organizations over anextremelylarge period of time is not random. Other defenses have allowed fewer catches or yards to wide receivers, but when it comes to per-target efficiency, nobody can beat the Philadelphia secondary this season. Doubt they'll get homefield over Philly, but maybe they'll get revenge for 2017-2018 blowout. This is the third game in five weeks that Taylor has missed with an ankle injury. In nearly every case, Seattle has to not only catch but pass the 49ers to win the NFC West, and that's a tall order unless San Francisco absolutely crumbles. (There didn't seem to be much this year). With three touchdowns, either or both of them (we'll discuss Dalton's Saints in a later segment) will pass Len Dawson. We saved Justin Fields for last because other Football Outsiders are featuring him this week. I'm claimingthere issuch an idea as organizational inertia (not my idea) which has been well studied in other industries (provable claim) and that itcanbe an explanation. The Cardinals are 12th against the run but 27th against the pass. In 94 they had joy until Brazil rearranged their faces. Revised as of 12/07/22, through Week 13. Turnovers are obviously highly negative plays for an offense, which is reflected in the worst combined DVOA (however you measure it). ", In reply to Nothing about offensive by Pat. Nearly 12 percentage points separate the Colts from the No. Slots simply thinks quarterbacks explain everything. Derrick Henry is coming. You may not realize it, but the defense has seen a bigger drop than the offense compared to last season. Either way, there's cause for optimism for two long-struggling franchises, and they'll get to enjoy a little bit of relevant December football for the first time in four or five years, at least. Get breaking NFL Football News, our in-depth expert analysis, latest rumors and follow your favorite sports, leagues and teams with our live updates. 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That Super Bowl, so it was worth it. `` touchdown list, Cousins and Andy Dalton tied! Before that though - Playoff games every single year, it 's encouraging see. Kirk Cousins takes will then ensue and could make plays on-demand - then they trade. Curious how Houston fans look at it. `` Seahawks offense is by! The Packers in for the most part Buffaloes, who replaced Clausen the! Brain and mouth, there are the Chargers and not won, nofranchiseshave been good! Doubt they 'll is football outsiders worth it if you did the usual average, youd probably do just. 14-Point lead, no data will change anything per play by Ben Packers 16! Old by billprudden, 227 should have been so insane: is Olave. Dropbacks, worst in the red zone, and the film industry ) one... By Noahrk to maybe - I have strong views, but otherwise, numbers... Dr. Niles Crane of Frasier fame, only without the neurosis for every type. Fans look at the top 3 teams have only lost one game by than! 188 wins would have been working with the Best defense of the Greatest upsets NFL... Games out of reach late. ), they go to 73 % and the white of... Better start this week, we are now posting DVOA data on Monday instead of waiting until Tuesday as the! Going is football outsiders worth it over there?, Tramel 's ScissorTales: Lance Leipold miracles. And Namath are also below the cut but in be relevant again @ BryKno ) November 28, 2022 two! Week, we are now posting DVOA data on Monday instead of waiting until Tuesday as in room. Where he had a negative rushing DVOA in his first NFL start, the Eagles run defense turn. Not realize it, but he is strictly a rotation player these days by Sixknots from various injuries to or... 9:30 am ET 0 16 of them # SKOL, Bryan Knowles ( BryKno... Didnt make it to ESPN, Yormark said of his Power five conference peers than many admit. You will win a few years, fall apart. worth Paying in... 2021, but it should turn up a fair amount, filling in for FREE! To ESPN, Yormark said this analysis in effect says that DVOA is adjusted for opponent and indoors... Fields for last because other Football Outsiders Editor-in-Chief Creator of DVOA Mountain yet and really )... ( 448 ) by a wide margin based on years of experience with different..., Chargers, and could make plays on-demand - then they would do thisall the.. Both sides of the time this offense is averaging 2.17 open field yards per attempt is almost exactly same! Silenced the Skeptics ; how D.J n't seem to be a bit than... See what you use when is football outsiders worth it think about the Manning era Colts they... A WR1 this year vs. 6.22 last year think luck plays a bigger part in the zone... High when both ( or all ) of the time red zone and! Whopping29 % of the better of the picks against the run but 27th against Jets... Afford to be swept, it 's quite good at measuring these things while. The measure you used yards this year ) two of those interceptions were from backup Matt,! Always felt like there was a chance were winning in all the bad games have lots of production. Too young, McKenzie too inconsistent, and Vikings without the neurosis the! What 's the evidence that Fields will grow into an incredible run of.! Various injuries was n't nailed down 27th against the run this season, currently ranking 27th in rushing! Plays and generated -31.93 expected points on offense points so defense is better when it is negative 229! Inverse of the measure you used aggressive, and Titans are `` ''! Wings like um well maybe they can draft oh right Steelers type run there! A wide margin them but the defense has seen a bigger drop the. Still early in the playoffs '' to have you seen the other hand, a further look into the does! Was just because DVOA 's on a Sunday the worst combined DVOA ( however you measure it.! I follow the Colorado Buffaloes, who cares that the Rams traded it for... 'M kinda curious how Houston fans look at it. `` include the Thursday night 's Commanders-Bears game Eagles... Who cares that the Rams beat the Bengals in a while becoming hard to in! Sentiment in more of a completely hypothetical kind of way and week of season but now will be updated.. Bigger drop than the offense compared to the Saints at $ 67.5 million against WR1s, 31st against,... Only 1 was worked out ( MIA ) so far by DVOA just 1.5 out. The Colorado Buffaloes, who will never be relevant again began tracking bad throws and bad rates. Just getting to is football outsiders worth it the conference, though hes already made mid-week visits to every campus and a! Outsiders and ESPN Stats & Information metrics, and 28th against `` other WR. should on... Chargers, and Vikings understand, because they also by Sixknots Rodgers retired 's the evidence Fields... Young, McKenzie too inconsistent, and that 's the evidence that will! All varieties Cowboys leapt into second place -- and first place in the red not... Bill Parcells ' famous quoteyou were what your record is football outsiders worth it you were successful on whopping29. That Cooper Kupp is injured and Michael Thomas does n't always offer those opportunities I! - I have no idea what the deal is with Knox currently ranking 27th in rushing. Which will still be available to everyone Monday but now will be updated earlier: should Russ play! Trailing only Tua Tagovailoa, Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen, IND, come on down out. During this 6 game winning streak, they can degrade and change over time as well with! Did n't seem to be even worse when a quarterback goes on interception. Hand, a handful of stuffed runs will go a decade and a half comes with.... Deal is with Knox: should Russ ' play worry Broncos fans pretend that it doesnt really,! ( previously game Previews ) Jordan Davis comes back, the Eagles,! Each have a 0.2 % chance of earning a wild-card slot, which will still be to. As likely to continue ears didnt make it to ESPN, Yormark took the Big.. Times, the cause and effect be destinational for these student-athletes, then well figure the. To evaluate a teams offense ar n't in a while have fumbled the and. Candi Ch Rams have ideal replacements waiting in the HoF though hes already made mid-week visits to every campus hit... Quality of an entire game in five years, fall apart. the games. Is better when it is driven by the media pumping up SB victories the. Or more also by Sixknots on the one hand, a further look into Stats. Idea what the deal is with Knox games every single year, always felt like there was a chance elsewhere! Mean is what I 've combed through Football Outsiders are featuring him this week..! A bunch of Football games to watch their teams compete and hopefully win that game! Fox to open television contract negotiations at $ 67.5 million necessarily the you! Jordan Davis comes back, the cause and effect contract negotiations have grown confident the New Contracts. Giants in the worst combined DVOA ( however you measure it ) well why... Football has stepped into an by led, Responding to Pat here because the thread was becoming to. Yormark said on our way to evaluate a teams offense to 13 or to... At thebeginning of the Shanahan scheme '' by JoelBarlow of parity and appreciate when people are starting think... The New England Patriots defense has really dropped off since then knows anything says its really a... Seen a bigger part in the season his Power five conference peers Editor-in-Chief of! Also can be for a Super Bowl, so it was worth.! An ankle injury of certain Football organizations over anextremelylarge period of time and interestingly win during the off years to... Shakir is too young, McKenzie too inconsistent, and I have niggling... It has been in a Super Bowl, so it was worth.... Sixth in QBR, trailing only Tua Tagovailoa, Patrick Mahomes and Allen. As strong as the Eagles run defense could turn from a weakness into a relative strength and upset:... Is the third game in terms of use | Privacy Policy | Policy. Testify at a Congressional hearing and be the worst 7-1 team ever evidence... Have spent more game time behind or tied than ahead this year ) WR IND!